During the pandemic, Congress expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies through the 2021 American Rescue Plan. Promoted as temporary relief for low- and middle-income Americans, the change also removed the income cap, allowing even upper-income households to receive taxpayer-funded assistance.
Although the public health emergency ended more than two years ago, these “enhanced” subsidies remain in place. Now, with their expiration set for January 2026, much of Washington is blaming next year’s premium hikes on their loss.
But that misses the main point.
A new report from the Paragon Health Institute finds that ending these subsidies accounts for only 4 percentage points of the expected 20% jump in 2026 premiums. The real drivers are long-standing structural issues: rising healthcare costs, inflation and increased medical utilization.
For a typical ACA enrollee—a 50-year-old earning 200% of the federal poverty level—premiums are projected to rise from $8,326 to $9,991, with just $333 of that increase tied to the subsidies’ expiration.
What we know:
- Subsidy expiration isn’t the main driver. It accounts for just 4 percentage points of the total premium increase.
- Structural flaws persist. Rising utilization, hospital consolidation, and costly new drugs—especially GLP-1 treatments—are pushing prices up.
- Taxpayers are propping up the marketplace. Federal subsidies now cover most ACA premiums, masking the true cost of coverage.
- Extending temporary subsidies won’t fix the problem. It would turn short-term relief into a permanent entitlement while leaving underlying costs unchecked.
The data are clear: America’s health-insurance problem isn’t subsidy loss—it’s subsidy dependence. Check out the full story in this week’s commentary.
Have a great weekend,
– Kyle Wingfield
Friday’s Freshest
📚Here is a simple proposition: If a Georgia public school has an open seat, any Georgia student should be able to take it. This idea isn’t fringe or partisan and shouldn’t require a superintendent’s blessing.
🏫Atlanta is in the middle of consolidating and reorganizing schools, with tens of thousands of open seats across the district. Still, consolidation is rarely easy, even when it’s the practical or financially sound thing to do.
🩺Georgia’s doctor shortage is large, and growing larger. Facing that fact is crucial if policymakers are to address the problem. So is rejecting the pervasive inclination to continue building our physician workforce “the way we’ve always done it.”
🏠A local nonprofit challenging the City of Calhoun’s ban on homes smaller than 1,150 square feet won an initial legal victory. Tiny House Hand Up sought to use donated land to build modest, affordable cottages, but the city’s restrictions initially blocked their plans.
💰By adopting a Taxpayer Relief Fund, which saves surplus revenue for tax relief instead of new spending, Georgia can ensure conservative budgeting translates into lasting, responsible tax reductions.
Peach Picks
💵 Georgia is sitting on a massive cash cushion, with more than $14.6 billion now in state reserves, according to a new report from the State Accounting Office released this week.
🎓Hyundai announced a $5 million donation to Savannah State University to name the Hyundai College of Education, which will serve as a center for training future educators and workforce professionals.
🌏Gov. Brian Kemp is leading an international economic development mission that will begin in the Republic of Korea. This marks the third time Kemp has been to Korea since being inaugurated.
⚙️During the third annual Governor’s Workforce Summit, Gov. Brian Kemp said that Georgia must focus on training the future workforce if we want to maintain the top state for business title.
👷Four employees of an Atlanta-area construction company said a labor union continues to threaten them with fines after they resigned their union memberships. The National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation filed a complaint with the National Labor Relations Board against International Union of Operating Engineers Local 926.
Quotes Of Note
“Tomorrow is the most important thing in life. Comes into us at midnight very clean. It’s perfect when it arrives and it puts itself in our hands. It hopes we’ve learned something from yesterday.” – John Wayne
“Your present circumstances don’t determine where you can go; they merely determine where you start.” – Nido Qubein
“We are not politicians. We are not supposed to respond to the pressures of the times, but to the words of the law.” – Justice Antonin Scalia
One More Fact
Georgia received 40.5% of its revenue from Washington in 2023—slightly above the national average of 37%. That figure nearly matches the highs of the pandemic stimulus years and is double what it was in 1990, according to a new report from the State Policy Network’s Center for Practical Federalism.
As the federal government shutdown continues and funding flows shift, it’s clear how vulnerable state budgets have become to disruptions in Washington. So what can states do to reduce that dependency?
Let’s take a look at what other states are doing. Tennessee and Oregon now require legislative approval before agencies can apply for certain federal grants, while Utah, Nebraska and Ohio mandate contingency plans to prepare for the loss of federal funds.
Transparency laws in Utah, Tennessee and Oklahoma expose hidden federal guidance that often shapes education policy, and states like Nebraska and Indiana have limited judicial deference to agencies which restores authority where it belongs: with elected lawmakers.
While Georgia’s reliance on federal funding has grown, lessons from these states highlight practical ways to rebalance that relationship.